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This month feels like an eternity in the velocity and severity of global developments. The most important in my opinion has been the crisis surrounding Greenland, as it has catalyzed a profound structural realignment of the Western world, shifting the geopolitical center of gravity away from Washington. The U.S. administration’s refusal to dismiss military coercion as a tool for territorial acquisition has shattered the foundational premise of NATO, transforming the United St

Economics   The global economy is expected to experience solid, resilient growth in 2026, though it will be uneven. The consensus forecast for U.S. GDP real growth in the coming year is 2% to 2.5%, supported by fiscal spending, tax benefits, and a strong capital expenditure cycle, particularly driven by AI investments. U.S. core inflation (PCE) is projected to continue easing, potentially falling to 2.3% by year-end. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected

Happy Thanksgiving Day to our U.S. colleagues and friends! As we enter the holiday season, it is an opportune moment to summarize the major developments of the past month and consider the probable trajectory forward. I. The Ukrainian Peace Process: A Cautious Outlook The most significant development remains the intensive, high-level negotiations aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The diplomatic process is currently shaped by competing proposals: The Initial U.S.

It has been a while since I wrote something in our usual post and apologize for that, but time is a serious constraint. I will not go into details of traditional macroeconomic evolution or comments on the FED policy or EU politics. I will just try to summarize some huge things that are shaping the world at this period. The first one is the meteoric rise of precious metals along with the worst US dollar devaluation in decades. Put simply, the now named "debasement trade" is mo

The first half of the year brought its fair share of drama. April kicked off with a sharp global equity selloff, sparked by renewed...